
پس از دوران امنیت مالی و توسعه دهههای ۱۹۹۰ و ۲۰۰۰، سرعت یکپارچهسازی اقتصادی در دهه ۲۰۱۰ متوقف شد؛ چراکه شرکتها با پس لرزههای بحران مالی، شورشی پوپولیستی علیه مرزهای باز و جنگ تجاری دونالد ترامپ دستوپنجه نرم میکردند. جریان کالاها و سرمایه متوقف شد و بسیاری از روسا تصمیمهای خود برای سرمایهگذاری خارجی را به تعویق انداختند. مشخص نیست که آیا جهانیسازی با وقفه مواجه شده است یا بهکل از میان رفته است؟
حالا انتظارها به پایان رسیده است؛ چراکه همهگیری کرونا و عملیات نظامی در اوکراین سبب بازنگری در سرمایهداری جهانی در اتاقهای هیات مدیره و دولتها شده است. به هر طرف که نگاه کنید زنجیرههای عرضه در حال تغییر هستند؛ از موجودی ۹تریلیون دلاری کالا که بهعنوان بیمهای در مقابل تورم و کمبود ذخیره شده است، گرفته تا مبارزه برای کارمندان که به دنبال تغییر جهت شرکتها از چین و تایوان ایجاد شده است.
موضوع این جهانیسازی جدید امنیت است، نه بهرهوری؛ بهطوریکه در این سیستم اولویت کار کردن با کسانی است که میتوان روی آنها حساب کرد و در کشورهایی که کشورتان رابطه دوستی با آنها دارد. اما این شرایط میتواند به حمایتگرایی، بزرگ شدن دولتها و بدتر شدن تورم منجر شود. اما اگر دولتها و سیاستمداران خویشتنداری نشان دهند، این مساله میتواند در اقتصاد جهان تغییرات مثبت ایجاد کند، مزایای بازبودن را حفظ کند و تابآوری را بهبود بخشد.
جهانیسازی با تمرکز بر حداکثر بهرهوری نیز خالی از مشکل نبوده است. نوسانات جریانهای سرمایهای بازارهای مالی را بیثبات کرده است و بسیاری از کارگران در کشورهای ثروتمند بیبهره ماندهاند. اخیرا نیز دو نگرانی دیگر ظهور کرده است؛ اول اینکه برخی از زنجیرههای عرضه کمسود آنطور که بهنظر میرسد ارزشمند نیستند؛ غالبا آنها هزینهها را پایین نگه میدارند، ولی وقتی شکست میخورند، هزینهها میتواند بسیار فلجکننده باشند.
مشکل دوم نیز این است که پیگیری صرف مزیت هزینهای به وابستگی به استبدادی منجر شده است که حقوق بشر را نادیده میگیرد و از تجارت بهعنوان ابزار زورگویی استفاده میکند.اما دولتها و شرکتها باید بهخاطر داشته باشند که تابآوری از متنوعسازی نشأت میگیرد، نه تمرکز کردن در خانه. صادرات کالایی قدرتهای مطلقه ۱۰درصد بازار را تشکیل میدهد و یافتن جایگزین برای آن دشوار است. راهحل این مساله ملزم کردن شرکتها به متنوعسازی تامینکنندگان در این حوزههاست. با وجودیکه کوتهبینیهای فراوانی وجود دارد، مصرفکنندگان کالاهای جهانی باید امیدوار باشند که مرحله بعدی جهانیسازی بیشترین درجه ممکن باز بودن را داشته باشد. تعادل جدید میان بهرهوری و امنیت هدف معقولی است؛ درحالیکه زندگی در یک انبار یارانهای اینطور نیست.
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